AI's Trillion-Dollar Opportunity: Context Graphs

📖 Source: AI's Trillion-Dollar Opportunity: Context Graphs ✍️ Author: Jaya Gupta, Ashu Garg @ Foundation Capital 📅 Published: December 22, 2025

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📚 Article Summary

This article explores how Context Graphs represent the next trillion-dollar platform opportunity in enterprise AI. Traditional "systems of record" (like Salesforce, Workday, SAP) captured what data exists, but they miss a critical layer: why decisions were made.

As AI agents become more autonomous, they need decision traces—records of not just outcomes, but the context, policies, exceptions, and precedents behind each decision. Startups that sit in the "orchestration layer" where decisions actually happen have a structural advantage to capture this context and build the next generation of systems of record.

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Slide 1 of 10: Cover

💡 Summary: The opening slide introduces the trillion-dollar opportunity in AI—Context Graphs as the new system of record for AI agents. This sets the stage for understanding why capturing decision context is the next big platform play.

📌 Key Message

• Headline: AI's Trillion-Dollar Opportunity

• Sub-headline: Context Graphs: The New System of Record for AI Agents

Slide 1: Cover

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Slide 2 of 10: The Old World

💡 Summary: This slide explains the trillion-dollar legacy of traditional systems of record (Salesforce, Workday, SAP). These platforms became incredibly valuable by storing "what is"—the canonical data about customers, employees, and operations. Understanding this history sets up why the next opportunity looks similar but addresses a different problem.

📌 Key Message

• Headline: The Old World: Systems of Record

• Core Insight: "Own the canonical data, own the workflow, own the lock-in"

📋 Key Points

• 🐾 Salesforce → Owns customer data

• 🐾 Workday → Owns employee data

• 🐾 SAP → Owns operations data

• These became trillion-dollar platforms by storing "what is"

Slide 2: The Old World

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Slide 3 of 10: The Missing Layer

💡 Summary: Here's the critical problem—traditional systems store WHAT happened but not WHY. Exception logic lives in people's heads, precedents aren't linked, cross-system synthesis happens mentally, and crucial approvals happen in Slack, Zoom, and DMs outside any system of record. This invisible layer is where the opportunity lies.

📌 Key Message

• Headline: The Missing Layer

• Core Insight: Systems store WHAT happened... but not WHY

📋 Key Points

• 🐾 Exception logic lives in people's heads

• 🐾 Precedents from past decisions aren't linked

• 🐾 Cross-system synthesis happens mentally

• 🐾 Approvals happen in Slack, Zoom, DMs

Slide 3: The Missing Layer

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Slide 4 of 10: Rules vs. Decision Traces

💡 Summary: This slide distinguishes between rules (general policies) and decision traces (what actually happened with full context). Rules say "use official ARR for reporting," but decision traces capture the complete picture: "we used X definition, under policy v3.2, with VP exception, based on precedent Z." AI agents need BOTH to work effectively.

📌 Key Message

• Headline: Rules vs. Decision Traces

• Core Insight: Agents need both to work effectively

📋 Key Points

Rules	Decision Traces
"What SHOULD happen in general"	"What ACTUALLY happened + WHY"
Example: "Use official ARR for reporting"	Example: "We used X definition, under policy v3.2, with VP exception, based on precedent Z"

Slide 4: Rules vs. Decision Traces

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Slide 5 of 10: The Context Graph

💡 Summary: This is the core concept—a Context Graph is a living record of decision traces stitched across entities and time. Accounts, renewals, tickets, incidents, and policies are all connected by the decisions made about them. "Why" becomes first-class data, precedent becomes searchable, and every automated decision adds to the graph.

📌 Key Message

• Headline: The Context Graph ✨

• Core Insight: A living record of decision traces stitched across entities and time

📋 Key Points

• 🐾 Accounts, renewals, tickets, incidents, policies → connected by decisions

• 🐾 "Why" becomes first-class data

• 🐾 Precedent becomes searchable

• 🐾 Every automated decision adds to the graph

Slide 5: The Context Graph

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Slide 6 of 10: Why Incumbents Can't Build This

💡 Summary: CRMs and data warehouses have a structural disadvantage—they're not in the execution path where decisions happen. CRMs store current state, not decision-time context. Warehouses see reads AFTER decisions via ETL. Neither sits where the action is. This creates a moat for new entrants who ARE in the right position.

📌 Key Message

• Headline: Why Incumbents Can't Build This

• Core Insight: They're in the wrong path

📋 Key Points

• 🐾 CRMs: Store current state, not decision-time context

• 🐾 Warehouses: See reads AFTER decisions (via ETL)

• 🐾 Both: Don't sit in the execution path

Slide 6: Why Incumbents Fail

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Slide 7 of 10: The Startup Advantage

💡 Summary: Startups building in the orchestration layer have a unique advantage—they sit RIGHT where decisions happen. They can see full context at decision time, capture inputs/policies/exceptions/approvals, record the trace as a first-class artifact, and build the context graph from day one. This is the structural moat.

📌 Key Message

• Headline: The Startup Advantage

• Core Insight: Startups sit in the execution path where decisions happen

📋 Key Points

• 🐾 See full context at decision time

• 🐾 Capture inputs, policies, exceptions, approvals

• 🐾 Record the trace as a first-class artifact

• 🐾 Build the context graph from day one

Slide 7: The Startup Advantage

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Slide 8 of 10: Three Strategic Paths

💡 Summary: The article outlines three ways startups can capture this opportunity: (1) Replace the entire system of record (like Regie building an AI-native CRM), (2) Replace specific modules (like Maximor targeting finance workflows), or (3) Create an entirely new system of record for decisions (like PlayerZero for production context).

📌 Key Message

• Headline: Three Paths for Startups 🛤️

• Core Insight: Different approaches to the trillion-dollar opportunity

📋 Key Points

Path	Strategy	Example
Path 1	Replace entire SoR	Regie → AI-native CRM
Path 2	Replace modules	Maximor → Finance workflows
Path 3	Create new SoR for decisions	PlayerZero → Production context

Slide 8: Three Strategic Paths

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Slide 9 of 10: Key Signals for Founders

💡 Summary: For founders looking to build in this space, here are the signals to watch for: High headcount (50+ people doing manual workflows), exception-heavy decisions (where "it depends" is always the answer), glue functions (RevOps, DevOps, SecOps), and cross-system intersections where context dies. The glue functions are the tell!

📌 Key Message

• Headline: Key Signals for Founders 📍

• Core Insight: Where to find context graph opportunities

📋 Key Points

• 🐾 High headcount: 50+ people doing manual workflows

• 🐾 Exception-heavy decisions: Where "it depends" is the answer

• 🐾 Glue functions: RevOps, DevOps, SecOps

• 🐾 Cross-system intersections: Where context dies

Slide 9: Key Signals for Founders

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Slide 10 of 10: Back Cover

💡 Summary: The closing insight—the next trillion-dollar platforms will capture DECISIONS, not just data. Systems of record evolve into systems of decisions. The context graph becomes the source of truth for autonomy, explaining not just what happened, but WHY it was allowed to happen. This is the future of enterprise AI.

📌 Key Message

• Headline: The Next Trillion-Dollar Platforms

• Core Insight: Will capture decisions, not just data

📋 Key Points

• Systems of record → Systems of decisions

• The context graph becomes the source of truth for autonomy

• "It explains not just what happened, but WHY it was allowed to happen"

Slide 10: Back Cover

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🎯 Key Takeaways

1. Systems of Record captured "what is" — the next opportunity captures "why it happened"

2. Decision traces are durable artifacts — not just rules, but the full context of each decision

3. Context Graphs stitch decisions across time and entities — making precedent searchable

4. Incumbents are structurally disadvantaged — they're not in the execution path

5. Startups in the orchestration layer have the advantage — they see and capture decisions as they happen

6. Three paths exist: Replace SoR, replace modules, or create new SoR for decisions

7. Key signals: High headcount, exception-heavy decisions, glue functions, cross-system gaps